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A new study by Boston Consulting Group reveals statistics mentioning that by 2030 almost a quarter of travel in the U.S will be driverless. Driverless car travel will account for almost 25 percent of travel miles in the U.S, the press release by Boston Consulting Group mentions. Converging three trends such as Electric Vehicles (EV’s), Ride Sharing and Autonomous Driving will lead to this advancement in travel and automotive market. BCG says this will transform Automotive Industry leading to easy transportation.
Notably, driverless car travel will offer low-cost, convenient options of transportation to commuters of big cities. In comparison to private vehicles, Shared Autonomous Electric Vehicles (SAEV’s) can reduce travel costs by around 60 percent. BCG also observes that in less than 15 years, Shared Autonomous Electric Vehicles (SAEV’s) will replace almost 5 million plus traditional vehicles. While there will not be a major change in vehicle demand, conventional vehicles will get replaced with partly autonomous cars relating to personal use.
The main advantage of driverless car travel for large cities is cleaner air, and less congestion due to the decreasing use of personal cars. But this can become a big disadvantage for public transport systems; which can result in the regulation of the number of SAEV’s, BCG says.
Shared Autonomous Electric Vehicles (SAEV’s) can save money, time, and lives. According to BCG’s study, a Chicago resident owning a private vehicle; and driving 10,000 miles annually can considerably cut travel costs. Typically, he can reduce his travel costs to about 50 cents/mile from about $1.20/mile.
A combination of insights includes a survey of 6,000 plus U.S users, economic forecasting, industry expert interviews. It also includes an in-depth analysis of traffic patterns as well as varied population densities of over 100 cities. In addition, insights from Boston Consulting Group’s (BCG’s) past studies also considered.
According to an estimate, the shift towards SAEV’s will gradually start by early 2020’s. This shift will happen in cities with a population of above 1 million individuals. If technology innovations reduce the costs for users significantly, the adoption of SAEV’s can become even widespread and faster. Nonetheless, BCG observes that SAEV’s can be a bit uncomfortable for commuters of rural areas and small cities. On the flip side, the study also observes that many users will be skeptical about advanced autonomous technology. They may even be reluctant to give up on the comfort and advantages of private vehicles.
The age of Electric Vehicles (EV’s), Ride Sharing and Autonomous Driving generation is drawing up rapidly. This can serve as the perfect time for automakers to take big steps for necessary advancements to thrive in the automotive market.
Well, regarding the future of driverless car travel, we can say that 2030 is not very far.